CALGARY, November 22, 2011 -A
National Energy Board (NEB) report examining energy trends in
Canada projects that Canada's energy supply to 2035 will grow to
record levels and energy markets will function well, providing
Canadians with adequate energy.
To gather information for the 64-page report, Canada's Energy Future: Energy Supply and Demand
Projects to 2035, the NEB held cross-Canada consultations
last spring to seek the views of Canadian energy experts and other
interested stakeholders, and then conducted its own extensive
quantitative analysis.
NEB Chair Gaétan Caron said, "This document is a means for the
NEB to fulfill our vision of contributing to the pursuit of a
sustainable energy future for Canada. The 2011 report, which is
based on cross-Canada research, shows Canadians can be confident
about their energy future."
Among key findings in the report, based on a moderate "mostly
likely" view of future energy prices and economic growth, are:
- Although energy from fossil fuels will remain the dominant
source of supply, emerging fuels and technologies will gain market
share as policies and programs promote growth in these areas. The
share of biofuels in transportation-sector energy consumption
triples over the projection period, from 1.1 per cent to 3.3 per
cent in 2035, while the share of renewable-based electricity
generation increases from 62 per cent to 67 per cent in 2035.
- Energy supply will grow to record levels fuelled by the
emergence of unconventional production such as oil sands, shale gas
and tight gas, and - in the area of power production - construction
of new generating capacity to meet steadily increasing
demand.
- Total end-use energy demand growth will slow to 1.3 per cent
during the projection period, down from 1.4 per cent from 1990 to
2008. Factors reducing demand include slowing population growth,
higher energy prices, lower economic growth, and enhanced
efficiency and conservation programs. While demand will slow
considerably in the residential, commercial and transportation
sectors, it will be partially offset by industrial-sector demand
growth. The industrial sector accounted for almost half of Canadian
energy demand in 2010.
- Net crude oil available for export will more than triple by
2035, and net electricity available for export will double in that
period. The amount of natural gas available for export is expected
to gradually decline until 2020 due to increased Canadian demand
for natural gas. After 2020, production growth and demand growth
will be about the same.
The document also outlines four additional cases based on high
and low energy prices, and fast and slow economic growth.
Among NEB responsibilities are monitoring Canadian energy
markets and publicly sharing a view of the reasonable foreseeable
requirements for energy-use in Canada, taking into account trends
in oil-and-gas discoveries.
Canada's Energy Future is a
flagship publication within the NEB's Energy Information Program
because its detailed research and analysis provide an independent
long-term outlook for the country's various energy sectors.
To view the report and detailed data used to develop it, visit
the Energy Reports section on the main page of the NEB website at
www.neb-one.gc.ca.
At
GLOBE 2012, taking place march 14-16, 2012, a
special Energy Leaders Dialogue will bring together senior
executives from leading international energy companies to discuss
the factors shaping our energy future and to share their insights
on the changing economics of energy. Check here for
more information on GLOBE 2012