Market Development for Fuel Cells in the Stationary, Portable, and Transport Sectors

GLOBE-Net, July 31, 2012 - The global fuel cell industry is growing at a rapid pace, having posted a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 83% during the period from 2009 to 2011. 

However, the industry is still small, particularly compared to some of its other counterparts in the clean energy arena such as solar and wind.  And the fuel cell industry still suffers from a pattern of expansion and contraction. 

During 2011, for example, system shipments in the portable fuel cell sector contracted by 16% on a year-over-year basis, and in the process the sector lost a number of companies

Meanwhile, the stationary sector posted the highest growth in 2011, primarily driven by the surge of interest in residential combined heat and power (resCHP) systems in Japan following the meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. 

Companies such as FuelCell Energy increased their production.  As a result, system shipments in the global stationary sector in 2011 grew by 75% over 2010 and posted a 2009-2011 CAGR of 63%. 

The dichotomy between the portable and stationary sectors illustrates the fact that the fuel cell industry remains a complex and multifaceted market, with adoption patterns - and the health of the supply chain - varying significantly among different application segments. 

Despite a number of challenges, however, the industry continues to be driven forward by concerns about the cost of energy, a continued focus around the world on clean energy policy initiatives, and the overall transition to a smart energy paradigm.

Market Overview

The fuel cell industry saw shipments break the 20,000 barrier for the first time in 2011 thanks to a 2009 to 2011 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 83%. However, this aggregate figure hides the fact that the fuel cell industry has continued to exhibit a growth/contraction pattern.

During 2011, for example, system shipments in the portable fuel cell sector contracted by 16% on a year-over-year basis. In the process, the sector lost a large number of companies.

The stationary sector posted the highest growth in 2011, primarily driven by the surge of interest in residential combined heat and power (resCHP) systems in Japan following the meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Meanwhile, companies such as FuelCell Energy ramped up production. As a result, system shipments in the global stationary sector in 2011 grew by 75% over 2010 and posted a 2009 to 2011 CAGR of 63%.

However, this vigorous growth was countered somewhat by a dip in the number of megawatts shipped. In 2011, California shifted its subsidies from a capital expenditures (CAPEX) system to a performance-based system. Many companies thus saw shipments of fuel cell systems decline in 2011 due to the time required for recertification of their systems. Note that this activity was not restricted to fuel cell companies.

The impact of shifting that policy - in one state, in one country - on the global picture does highlight that the fuel cell industry is still far from robust enough to absorb any shocks.  

Market Forecasts 

Looking out to 2017, Pike Research forecasts that the fuel cell industry, including all applications in the stationary, portable, and transport sectors, will reach $15.7 billion. Due to a jump in orders in 1Q 2012, the industry is on target to surpass the billion-dollar mark by the end of 2012.

The period 2014/2015 remains critical in terms of transitioning from a niche industry to starting to move into the mainstream.

It is thus useful to note that all commercially available electrolytes saw shipments in 2011. Yet, only solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) posted growth over 2010.   Notably, many groups are still wrongly focused on which electrolyte is likely to "win."

This Pike Research report provides an assessment of the state of the global fuel cell market across its three major industry sectors: stationary, portable, and transport. The study includes qualitative and quantitative analysis of demand drivers and barriers, public policy factors, and key industry players in the worldwide fuel cell industry.

Market sizing and forecasts are included for megawatts shipped, electrolyte adoption rates, system shipments, and revenue by sector and application. This year's edition of the report also includes a special section on the impact that the current natural gas boom could have on the fuel cell industry.

Check here for more information