GLOBE-Net, July 2, 2012 - In the past
decade, the images and feelings Americans associate with the term
"global warming" have shifted dramatically.
Researchers at the Yale Project on Climate Communication
recently published an article in the
journal Risk Analysis that identifies and
analyzes these shifts in the connotative meaning of "global
warming."
The most striking result is the increase in the proportion of
Americans who express strong doubt or rejection of the reality of
global warming through their free associations. In 2003, only 7% of
Americans provided "naysayer" images (e.g., "hoax," or "no such
thing") when asked what thought or image first came to mind when
they heard the term "global warming."
By 2010, however, 23% of Americans provided "naysayer" images.
Over the same time, alarmist imagery (e.g., "death of the planet")
slightly increased. Both types of images became charged with more
negative feelings over time.
The graph below summarizes how Americans' associations to
"global warming" changed from 2003 to 2010 (more data can be found
in the full paper). Also included below are extracts from the full
paper.
Global warming is one of the most pressing problems facing the
world. Through their energy use, consumer behavior, and
support for or opposition to climate policies, the public will play
an important role in each nation's effort to limit greenhouse gas
emissions.
The American public's climate change risk perceptions, policy
preferences, and behavior are particularly important as the United
States alone produces approximately 20% of global carbon emissions.
With only 5% of the global population, the United States emits
19.10 tons of carbon dioxide per person per year, compared to 4.85
tons in China and 1.18 tons in India.
Generally, a majority of Americans have been somewhat concerned
about the issue for many years. As a policy
priority, however, global warming has always been lower than other
economic and social issues.
For example, in 2009 the Pew Research Center found that only 30%
of Americans said that global warming should be a top priority for
the new president, compared to 85% who said strengthening the
economy should be a top priority. Similarly, only 35% of
Americans considered global warming to be a very serious problem
compared to 44% in 2008.
However, research by the Yale Project on
Climate Communication found that many more Americans
now associate global warming with naysayer imagery, ranging from
skepticism that global warming is real or a serious threat to
outright conspiracy theories. In 2002, only 7% of Americans
provided naysayer associations; by 2010, however, this rose to over
20%.
Several factors may have contributed to these
trends. Climate change seems distant and abstract to
most Americans, while carbon dioxide, other greenhouse gases, and
the impacts that have already been observed around the world are
largely invisible and outside of most people's direct
experience.
The recent scandal, dubbed "Climategate," over
the unauthorized release of e-mails from several climate scientists
in the United States and United Kingdom probably also had an
important influence on public associations to global
warming.
This study demonstrates that while
affective images are individual mental representations and
feelings, they cannot be separated from larger-scale political,
economic, and cultural dynamics.
Risk-related affective images and
connotative meanings diffuse through complex social networks where
they are subject to reinterpretation, amplification, or attenuation
by different actors within the social
system. Some of these images are used by
advocates in an attempt to increase public risk perceptions to
motivate individual and collective action to mitigate risk, whereas
other images are promulgated by opponents who seek to raise public
doubts, dampen public concerns, and delay
action.
Affective imagery analysis thus provides
a powerful tool to measure, track, and explain shifting public
perceptions of risk over
time.
The full article is available for free and can be
downloaded here.
The full citation is as follows: Smith, N. and Leiserowitz,
A. (2012), The Rise of Global Warming Skepticism: Exploring
Affective Image Associations in the United States Over
Time. Risk Analysis, 32: 1021-1032.
doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01801.x