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GLOBE-Net Special Feature

A Primer on Climate Change and Carbon Trading

Who determines whether climate change is real?

There is little argument that the earth's climate is changing and that average global temperatures are rising. Global warming is a reality, and the full impacts of these changing climatic conditions on weather patterns, agriculture, water and wildlife resources and ocean levels are still unclear. Where there is continuing debate is on the extent to which global warming is caused by human activity.

There are several key agencies that are active in determining the impacts of climate change and the contributions made to it by human activity.

Here are some of the key scientific conclusions surrounding climate change research:

  • The global average surface temperature has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been between 0.4 and 0.6 degrees Celsius.

  • Five of the six warmest years on record have occurred since 2001.

  • Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent has decreased by about 10 to 15% since the 1950s. Arctic summer sea ice levels may decline by half by the end of the century, with some models showing near-complete disappearance of summer sea ice.

  • The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by 31% since 1750. The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. The current rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years.

  • About three-quarters of the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere during the past 20 years are due to fossil fuel burning. The rest is predominantly due to land-use change, especially deforestation.

Some of the most established international climate change research agencies are:

  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): This research body was established by two United Nations Agencies: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information available on climate change, to advance understanding of the issue and its potential impacts, as well as options for adaptation and mitigation.

    The IPCC has released three Assessment Reports so far, with the fourth expected in early 2007. Its earlier assessments supported the theory that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are contributing to climate change that is warming the planet.

    Given current emissions trends a rise in global temperature of between 2 and 4.5 degrees Centigrade is predicted to occur within the century as a result of a doubling in carbon levels in the atmosphere. The report notes that Arctic sea-ice levels have been consistently shrinking over the past decades, and that five of the six warmest years on record have occurred since 2001.

    The IPCC report, as with many other scientific studies, employs the use of observed temperature data as well as observations of tree rings, ice cores, and other indicators of historical climate. The most famous display of this data is in the so-called "hockey stick" graph, which shows a sharp increase in global average temperatures that coincides with the industrial revolution and increased human consumption of fossil fuels.

    While an early version of the data used for this graph contained a statistical anomaly that led some to discredit its validity, that has since been resolved and most scientific bodies agree with its findings on a rise in global temperature. One version of the graph is shown below.


  • The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment is an international project of the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), to evaluate and synthesize knowledge on climate variability, climate change, and increased ultraviolet radiation and their consequences. It released its report in 2004, showing that the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the globe. The ACIA predicts that summer sea ice levels will decline by half by the end of the century, with some models showing near-complete disappearance of summer sea ice. The consequences of warming in the Arctic will include: a rise in global sea levels, an increase in arctic marine traffic, a decrease in available food supplies for animals and indigenous peoples and other environmental impacts, according to the ACIA report.

  • The United States Climate Change Program is the US's top federal climate change research initiative. It's most recent report resolved apparent discrepancies in climate data that showed warming and cooling in the earth's atmosphere and on the surface. These discrepancies had been cited by sceptics of climate change, but the Program's research effectively reduced those differences, and both atmospheric and surface temperature data now show a warming trend. The agency noted that "the evidence continues to support a substantial human impact on global temperature increases."

  • The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), which is a part of Environment Canada, monitors water quantities, provides information and conducts research on climate, atmospheric science, air quality, ice and other environmental issues. The climate change program is pursued at several research centers, including the Climate Research Branch's modeling group (CCCma), the climate monitoring and data interpretation group (CCRM) and the climate processes and Earth observation group (CCRP). The Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG) conducts studies into climate change impacts and related adaption strategies.